Why a ‘Brexit’ would be so bad for the British

LE SCAN ECO – On Monday, a big English boss spoke out in favor of leaving Europe. If the British voted to leave the country from the European Union, the consequences for the UK economy could be dire.

On Monday, the managing director of the British construction giant JCB,: “European regulation is a ‘burden’. It’s easier to trade with America than with Europe sometimes ”. This declaration threw a pavement in the pond by declaring, while a referendum on the membership of the United Kingdom to Europe is to be held within two years. While many SME managers are annoyed by the constraints of the European Union, most of the big British bosses are in favor of staying in the EU and are making an alarmist speech on a possible “Brexit”. But the confirmed victory and the all-Conservative government formed by a five-year contract at 10 Downing Street could prove him right. His first mission, and his main campaign argument, will be to organize the promised referendum on an exit from the. In the aftermath of the legislative elections, Cameron wishes “to renew the relationship with Europe, (us) to ensure a better agreement for the British”. The scenario of a departure from the Union by the is not to be excluded, the polls on the question giving results 50/50. In any case, a secondment from the European Union (EU) could be very costly for the British economy. Explanations.

• A net exit from the EU could cost 78 billion euros per year over ten years

The analyzes diverge and the possible scenarios are numerous. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which brings together 240,000 companies, has already placed interest in the United Kingdom at 4 or 5 points of GDP.

For its part, the German foundation advances losses of 14% of GDP according to its studies. It estimates the consequences at 3% of the GDP / inhabitant by 2030 as well as a loss of influence of the City. Just that! Exiting the EU would then cost the UK some 56 billion pounds (78 billion euros) per year for 10 years. Why? Because leaving the EU means a massive decline in foreign trade for the United Kingdom, with the return of customs barriers.

The EU would also lose out largely from the reduction in trade. The Bertelsmann Foundation advances losses of 0.3% of GDP per capita in France as in Germany, and in particular a collapse of 2.7% of GDP per capita in Ireland!

Trade: a declining global influence since 1945

To analyze the consequences of a “Brexit”, we must turn to the study of foreign trade. According to the latest annual report published by, the UK ranks eighth in the world for merchandise exports and sixth in terms of imports. When we observe the evolution of the British share in world trade since 1945, the observation is clear. While Europe – then the EU – has retained a constant influence, the kingdom has gone from being the leading trading power to the rank of third, with its share in European trade even falling by almost nine points.

David Cameron does not want to become “the founding father of Little England” without Scotland and Europe.

Exiting the European Union could in particular have a terrible impact on the country’s merchandise balance, already. Worse still, a “Brexit” could affect the balance of services, a reason for the satisfaction of the United Kingdom, which has gradually become the second world power in terms of service exits and fifth for entries.

The EU, UK’s number one partner

If the majority of trade went to the former British colonies in the 1970s, today, according to the latest European statistics, the United Kingdom does most of its trade relations with members of the European Union. A situation explained by the obligation for the country to forge new commercial links after the emancipation of its colonies. The entry of the British into the European Community in January 1973 will then accelerate trade with the continent. This trend is still true in 2015.

The United Kingdom’s accession to the EU has given it access to the single market: free movement of goods, people and merchandise, ie the end of trade barriers given the fall of customs barriers. Since this entry into the Union, the country has increased by 55% its trade with member countries according to.

A departure from the European Union would entail a loss of the advantages linked to the single market. Trade barriers would be re-established which, according to a liberal European think tank, would lead to several consequences with the return of customs taxes. Medicines would climb by 4.5%, the automotive sector by 10%, while the tobacco and food sector would explode by 20%.

A Channel Tunnel beneficial for trade

When the Thatcher-Mitterand doublet agreed to a new tender for the construction of the Channel Tunnel in 1984, the Eurosceptic sling was real. However, in 2004, ten years after the tunnel was put into service, the figures spoke for them: doubled exchanges with continental Europe, 20 million passengers each year via Eurostar or shuttles, 18.7 million tonnes of goods transported). A symbol of the stowage of the United Kingdom to Europe.

The plus of a “Brexit” for the United Kingdom

Nevertheless, a “Brexit” would allow the country to control its migratory flow, a strong campaign argument of UKIP, while the majority of Britons consider that immigration is a major problem for the country. Since the crisis, the higher growth rate in the UK than in many European countries has attracted a large number of European workers. An argument also often advanced by Eurosceptics, the United Kingdom would then free itself from the regulatory constraints linked to the EU, the nerve of many anger in the House of Commons.

A departure from Brussels would also make it possible to overcome the 13.8 billion euros in annual contributions to the European budget, an old struggle of Margaret Thatcher.

History has already served as a lesson for the conservative camp. 23 years ago, John Major, then prime minister of the Tory camp, was abandoned by the Eurosceptics of his party after his election in 1992. To protect himself from an identical situation, David Cameron assembled a team of entirely conservative ministers, openly critical of the Union. The goal is to keep an eye and control over his troops.