Statistics: There was no and no epidemic in the Czech Republic. Therefore, we do not know when it will end

As was the case with the infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is not yet completely accurate. In any case, the word epidemic is not the best way to describe what happened in the Czech Republic, according to statistician Karel Helman.

In the public space in the Czech Republic, it has long been talked about an epidemic of covid-19. While the global pandemic was declared by the WHO
February 11, 2020, according to available information, no one has announced the epidemic of covid-19 in the Czech Republic. Looks like he just started talking.

In general, the term epidemic is understood as an unusually high incidence of infectious diseases (infections) people in a limited country during a defined period of time. This indicates a situation where the occurrence of a certain disease is more pronounced than the usually expected occurrence of this disease depending on the city and time.

In the case of covid-19, for which no tests have been performed in the past (no one has been tested), the expected occurrence is usually unclear and unknown. Now, however, we know that the disease was present in Europe in December 2019. It was in the European population that it was several months earlier, before mass-produced covid-19.

We remind you that the number of infected people and the number of people with proven covid-19 disease are completely different indicators, their change will lead to a very erroneous error condition and the time course of the infection.

The employment of these two indicators was, in my opinion, fatal, especially in this year’s year. For? Because at the time of the day, the number of tests performed in R grew rapidly. Therefore, the number of people with a proven disease grew.

For our brain, it is very easy to swap sweat-detected / confirmed sweat with (actually unknown) the total sweat. It could easily have been a false impression that the growing daily sweat of positively tested people is a picture of really fast orders.

As other indicators suggest, this was not the case and there was no immediate threat of an infection in R on days when the total number of confirmed people with the disease was growing rapidly. One such indicator is, for example, daily according to positive tests, which was constant on average approximately during the period of new measures. I consider this indicator to be important, I tried to explain in the previous text.

This graph shows both absolute

This graph shows both the absolute number of positive tests (on the vertical axis on the right) and the development of the relative share of positive tests (as the so-called moving average) in the Czech Republic in the period from 6 to 29.

Capture the graph

The graph shows both the number of tests performed in the R (on the vertical axis on the left) and the daily test with a positive result (on the vertical axis on the right) in the Czech Republic in the period from 6th to 29th.

Let us repeat that I do not want to criticize the introduction of the current measures around half of the ordinary. This was understandable, even in retrospect (with regard to the consequences of the extreme birth of the order, for example in Lombardy) and in accordance with the precautionary principle. Let me sigh the bag. It is a code that similar principles, at least in the same intensity of government, are also in connection with other issues, such as the ongoing climate change and long-term drought in the Czech Republic.

Pesto, let’s ask: when and in terms of what can we start talking about the esk epidemic of the new coronavirus?

Srovnn s chipkou

Let’s compare. The criterion for deciding when to talk about a chip epidemic, for example, is relatively clear: if the number of patients per 100,000 inhabitants exceeds 1,600 and 1,800. If the number of sick people exceeds this limit, it is a lace epidemic. If the number of patients falls below this limit, the lace epidemic is over.

There have been such epidemics in previous years. Strong epidemics, which were especially dangerous for the elderly, affected the Czech Republic especially in 2017 and 2018, which were especially dangerous for the elderly. For example, in the Stedoes region in 2018, most people who became ill with complications, pop. with consequent death, herilids were risk factors, ie sufferers of chronic diseases of the cardiovascular system, lungs, kidneys, diabetes, herbal and patilimezi. Most of the countries were in the age group of over 70 years, according to the groups of 60 and 70 years, according to the ratings of the then chip season.

T

Weeks in 2011 and 2019 with the highest pots of above-average deaths. Not the total number of deaths per week, but the first and only the number of those who died above the long-term average. This is the very first epidemic of lace, as the fact suggests that most of the week is at the very end of the year, ie from the period when the peak of lace is usually high.

For example, in the 10th week of 2018 there were 677 people in the Czech Republic compared to the average of 2011 and 2019. In 2017 and 2018 in the Czech Republic (compared to the average for 2011 and 2018) there were significantly above average people who are in statistikch S kept with the pins dead: pneumonia (ie pneumonia; 566 dead above average in 2017, 637 in 2018), other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (336 in 2017 and 320 in 2018) and in 2018 caused by an identified seasonal chip virus (150 lid). The total number of deaths from the respiratory system in 2017 and 2018 was the cause for which the highest number of people died.

This year, in connection with the disease covid-19, such (and other seln) criteria did not fall. Government experts have never claimed that there are hundreds of thousands of patients. The total weekly number of countries in 2020, about which we have information until the 13th week of the year (ie until the 29th of March), has been around long-term averages this year.

Pesto began to talk about the epidemic. For example, Minister of Health Adam Vojtch spoke at the press conference on May 10, 2020 as follows: On the other hand, as we talked about it, we are fulfilling the number of pulmonary ventilators so that there will be enough of them if the epidemic progressed in some way. Prime Minister Andrej Babi told a press conference on the 15th of February: And these resolutions are intended to restrict the free movement of persons and prevent a coronavirus epidemic on other persons.

According to these various reports, the epidemic of covid-19 appears to have started in the Czech Republic sometime around the aunt and mid-2020.

Pprava na epidemii

I wanted to investigate and hypothesized that it was possible to talk about an epidemic – due to the increasing pressure on the health care system. The collapse of the health care system as a result of five people with the disease covid-19 (ie during the extreme distribution of the disease), as well as the danger of a sudden distribution of the disease between the health workers, are clear.

On 16 May, therefore, the Ministry of Health issued a measure urging health care providers to reduce the performance of medical performance in the context of compliance. Subsequently, in connection with the unfavorable development of the epidemiological situation, the Ministry of Health gave the providers of acute drugs some of the responsibilities, in particular to set aside premises in the medical facility for the provision of health services to patients with suspected covid-19 and proven covid-19. ″.

Complete data on the occupancy of the health care system in R are unfortunately not available to the public. So we only know what was presented at various press conferences. Of these, it seems that even at the time of the introduction of appropriate measures, there was no observable sign of high pressure on the capacity of the health care system in the available data.

Data k Outflow of ICU drugs (ARO and ICU for adults) Howling ICU drugs (ARO and ICU for adults, patients with Covid-19) Vyuit ventiltor Vyuit ventiltor (pacienti s Covid-19; pipeline)
22.3. 63% 39% 1%
30.3. 65%
14.4. 48% 18% 31% 4%
16.4. 52% 33% 4%
17.4. 53% 33% 4%
18.4. 53% 33% 4%
19.4. 53% 33% 4%
20.4. 55% 33% 4%
21.4. 56% 33% 4%
22.4. 57% 16% 33% 4%
29.4. 59% 14% 34% 3%

At that time, government experts roughly estimated that the problem in terms of the capacity of the health care system in R would reach the limit of about 45 thousand patients with covid-19 (Prof. ernho’s estimate from the press conference on April 1).

Not only does this never happen, but according to publicly available data, the functionality (or performance) of the health care system in the Czech Republic was not endangered by patients with covid-19 at any of the available time points or in any way.

In the Czech Republic, however, there has been both a severe reduction in the health care system as a result of the measures taken, and a change in the breeding population: people have been going to the hospital, which is an effect observable in other countries.

The drop in ICU occupancy by about 15 percentage points corresponds to about 620 ICUs of km that were to be occupied. It is not known at this moment how the fate of the people, which was supposed to be in the ICU during the validity of the government, is expected. It will undoubtedly deserve attention in the future.

Because the epidemic of covid-19 in R was never defined by any indicator, we do not know when the epidemic began in the Czech Republic. Therefore, we do not even know when it will end. Going to the press conference on May 7, Deputy Prime Minister Karel Havlek used the words because we are fighting the epidemic. For, on the basis of what common indicators, Mr. Deputy Prime Minister and let the government official go to the May arrest stated that in R the epidemic was ill with covid-19, they still look.

The author works as an assistant professor at the Department of Statistics and Probability of the University of Economics in Prague.