How percentage of nakaench will die of coronavirus at the end of the holidays?

How much the new coronavirus will kill, badly in many ways, the scientist Jaroslav Flegr says. We can influence a number of them to our advantage. The first good thing is that the toxicity of coronavirus is likely to decrease. The virus will probably learn.

Parasites, which find a new kind of host, usually very quickly with their properties. They are not so much guilty of their ability to mutate as the selective pressure to which they are exposed in their new environment. When a parasite jumps on a new host, ie you from a bat to a hunter, there is usually a relatively rapid increase in its virulence, ie its ability to kill the new host species. It is the bottom that it was adapted to another species in the pot and multiplies in the new species only slowly.

After a jump, the parasite gradually massages its mass mutation to a new host. As a result, it loses its adaptation to the original host. Incidentally, this has been used in the past to prepare so-called attenuated vaccines. The human virus has been maintained for generations in monkeys. When he was subsequently transferred back to the hunter, he immunized him, but at the same time he was encoded significantly less than the original virus.

SARS COV-2 is still behind in the process of increasing virulence. In the second phase, the virus gradually adapts to changes in the host population. There is a gradual increase in the number of individuals who have suffered from the disease and are therefore short-term, long-term, or even permanently immune. In some cases, the virus wipes out the population, preferably of course one that carries genes for low resistance to the virus.

In a number of ivoinch species, including the hunter, the mechanisms of behavioral immunity are quickly activated by individuals who begin to behave in such a way as to reduce the likelihood of transmission of the disease from individual to individual. When we stay with our most natural species of ape, its females, and even some male males, sit down at some machines and start making hands. Catch them so that the minimum contacts are kept to a minimum.

Such changes in breeding are influenced by the criteria according to which evolution is selected from the population of virus mutants. The most likely mutants in the epidemic were those that multiplied as quickly as possible in the infected host’s organism, even if they killed their host quickly. It was essential for the virus to spread to as many people as possible around the infected host two, not to infect others, fast mutants of the virus.

As soon as the number of invading hosts in the population changed (and because they weakened the weak, or because they had a strong infection and became immune), or as soon as behavioral immunity arose (the host put on your hands and reduced contacts), they started On the other hand, those mutants of the virus who chose their host more and if not only did not kill it, but also did not limit its ability to defeat and thus continue the infection, are strongly advantageous. However, some mutants may learn in other ways, such as water and sexual transmission, and some may even influence the breeding host to their advantage.

According to such selection, changes are made in the composition of the population and in the breeding of their dogs in the dark, darker and higher (less and less virulent) lines of the virus in the environment. Understandably, in our apes, behavioral immunity is also manifested by the fact that for those who can infect the disease in an infected individual, and for a vaccine that will allow them to gain immunity to the infection without having to become infected. After all, there are no similar activities developed by miners of other species; that u would be ov yin pbh.

The percentage of patients who succumb to the disease, so-called mortality, also sharply dreams of the problem. If the bag only reduces the rate of multiplication of the parasite in the infected individual, it can turn on the return of the line, which will multiply in the host without the use of the block. Paradoxically, it can cause a sweat of the dead among those people to whom it does not reach. In our world, in which there are rich and poor countries, and in the individual countries of poor and wealthy individuals, the coveted discovery of an innkeeper could inflict more codes than benefits. This is of course ern scn, but we should also take it into account.

The discovery of a vaccine percentage of people who can be infected with the virus, and thus most likely accelerated the reduction of its virulence. More people in the population will be provocative, so the virus will encode the darkly unprovoked.

Even a deployed vaccine is not without risk. If the vaccine did not reduce the likelihood of the disease, but only killed the course of the disease, it would select for the formation of a line that would show virulence, and therefore mortality, in the bodies of the unoccupied. So it will be time for you to develop which of the vaccines we will eventually deploy, as well as how our world will be divided into poor and rich. And we should not succumb to the mole vision of selfishness. Just because the virus knows no borders or socio-economic boundaries.

Tip structure (

The structure of the tip from the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is a key piece of the virus that is used to penetrate the beech. The mutation at the tip thus affects the virus’s ability to penetrate the host’s beech, in this case the hunter.

So what percentage of nakaench will die of coronavirus at the end of the holidays? For now, we don’t know exactly what percentage of them die today. It does not matter how many percent of people with the disease practically do not show the disease at all. Let’s say that in countries where the health system has not collapsed, between 1 and 3 percent of covid-19 diseases die, ie comparable to Panel lace and roughly more than ordinary lace.

Today, the state is not in good condition, and most countries do not hide the course of the epidemic from their citizens or from abroad. As a result, in the richness of the world, an avalanche of epidemics can be stopped, or the exponential growth of sweat will change to liner growth. In countries where they started with anti-pandemic measures late or where they were soon inconsistent, this will be at a price of at least a thousand thousand.

So we have the knowledge that science and scientific technology have jumped forward in an incredible way over the last 20 years. And again, some clever woman thinks to divert resources from basic research to research applied, you need to innovate the pattern on knitted foams, so please remind him that this is not a good idea. A million invested in applied research can save millions, a million dollars, a million invested in basic research can save hundreds of billions, and in certain situations I can decide on humanity.

Due to the basic research, we can expect that we will have the first innermost in the week and the first satisfactory vaccine in a series of units of meat. We will see how quickly it is possible to start production in the operating range. However, until the development of coronavirus virulence, minimal new drugs are likely to occur during the course of the period and three to three.

As we know, predict the future bv oidn. On the basis of an analogy with other similar infectious diseases, I would like to point out that in a year the mortality rate of the covid-19 disease will be around two per mille in the developed world (and hopefully it will decrease).

And where will we be after the holidays? Probably somewhere on the way. It is not even a glory, it will definitely not go to the delay of the show and the organization of music festivals. We will probably have to forget about mass tourism to exotic destinations for a few years. But the decisive light at the end of the tunnel will be completely clear and the return to a normal life will have a very clear outline.