How is coronavirus decided? It is not at all clear from the data to the statistics

From the epidemiological point of view, the situation in the Czech Republic is developing very well, indicate all available data (by piece). For and how, however, in this situation she was allowed to take action at a constant pace, it is clear from them, according to statistician Karel Helman.

Do you know that the government has decided to dismantle the measures that have been in force since May 11? According to what criteria and indicator (indicator)? No? In that case, we are similar.

According to the available data, the epidemiological situation is considerably longer. In the last article, we got acquainted with the indicator daily according to the sweat of people with proven disease and (on that day) sweat test. I tried to explain, for which I consider it to be relatively the best available data on the state of the disease in the Czech Republic. As of April 13, this share did not deviate from the range of 0.5 and 2.5 percent.


Daily according to the sweat of people with proven disease and sweat test. The red points indicate the restriction of free movement of persons (16.3.) and the obligatory noen rouek (19.3.).

According to data from the Ministry of Health, on April 22, a patient with proven covid-19 was connected to pulmonary ventilation by a maximum of 76, representing approximately 12 percent of all patients connected to pulmonary ventilation and approximately 3.8 percent of all ventilated ventilators.

The collapse of the health care system due to its five patients with covid-19, which was the main magpie in all measures, so really not even in danger. According to positive tests, it stays close to its theoretical minimum (ie close to zero) for more than three weeks and does not rise even after a clever quarantine.

From this point of view, it is unclear with each passing day, the measures are not released much faster than has been announced so far. Respectively, it is not at all a matter of circumstances under which the government would agree to a much faster release of their measures, if they are not currently full.

Sprvn opatrn zatek

Not to mention, I consider it necessary to emphasize a few things: the disease covid-19 is extremely dangerous in extreme populations in the population (eg in Bergamo) and has (for more reason) a sharp increase in the number of earths (above average). It was therefore a logical step to take the measures provided by about half of the usual. And I don’t want to say that we shouldn’t take them again if the situation required it, for example, if, according to positive tests, it rises slowly for a long time (in breaths of weeks) or if it increases sharply (for example, in units of percent) during a short period.

My animals are thus naturally based on incomplete facts. Daily, according to people with a proven disease, I think, according to my words, with whom I will work and according to which the testing strategy is influenced (ie the selection of people for testing). The judgments about the time course of the infection are therefore based on the assumption that at least a comparable testing strategy will occur over time.

Unfortunately, there is not enough information in the public space at the moment to be able to assess whether the assumption is really correct. Otherwise, it’s a code that the state does not publish more information about who was tested and for (which is not just an opinion, see, for example, the complaints of economist D. Monk, who works for the crisis).

On the other hand, we should not forget that whenever he gave the week for which the country is in parallel at present, it has (not only) from an economic point of view called impacts, not the previous one. People and companies without income at the level before the adoption of government measures will run out of financial reserves still with urgency. Also, there have always been and are very good reasons to hurry.

How to get incubated time

Why not reason for a quick open picldna vt vha? The main (and perhaps the only) argument for the slow release of control measures that occurs is the incubation time of the infection: you need to know how the released action is released. Estimates of speech and two weeks appeared, today the series is working mainly with another topic: at the press conference of the Ministry of Health on April 23, and the following, the incubation period of 610 days was stated. According to the literature, the average estimate is an incubation period of six, seven and ten days, said on April 23, the director of the state of health information Ladislav Duek. (Official squadron MZ R uvd 7 and 14 days (in PDF). In general, the specified range is about 214 days, see e.g. page of the American

It is possible to use information about the long incubation time to think about the development of the disease in R at a time when the government was in charge. For the reason, which I analyzed in more detail last year, I use the data on the daily proportion of people with a proven illness. And I will try to assess whether the time evolution of this indicator supports and does not support the activities of the implemented measures (more precisely: the hypothesis about the activities of the implemented measures).

The property of data, especially at full speed, is a great deal of uncertainty (accident), because only a very small test was performed. This uncertainty / coincidence can be suppressed by the average of the last few days, see the curve in the first graph. This average, which suppresses random fluctuations, can thus be used for a comparison of the course of the order in R and Lombardy. (Especially for the sake of curiosity, let’s add a kind of graph of the course of the disease, which was completely different from the order of the disease and surprisingly similar.)


Comparison of the average according to positive tests per day in Lombardy and in R

vobdob 15.3. a 5.4. 2020.


Comparison of the development of the average according to positive tests per day in Lombardy and in R

vobdob 15.3. a 5.4.

2020 (note that the graph m has two y-axes, on the left are the values ​​for Lombardy, on the right for R). Although the level of infection was completely different – in Lombardy, according to nakaench, among those tested, in fact, 10 times you, the course of both according to them is surprisingly very similar. What doesn’t have to mean anything, at this moment it’s just an interesting observation.

If we focus only on the days when at least one hundred tests were performed in R (with increasing sweat, the test decreased according to the accident), then the highest daily proportions of people with a proven infection were recorded: 10. regular (15.15%, 165 tests ), 15th run (10.87%, 1,003 test), 6th run (9.91%, 111 test), 19th run (9.25%, 2,217 test) and 21st run (8.4 %, 1,880 test). Let’s remember that even at the same time he was sweating in the same way when he hit Lombardy at around 40, in some days even over 50 percent.

m to?

What happened in the Czech Republic at that time? To close the round on the 11th day, the free movement of persons was restricted from the 16th day and the obligation of noen rouek was introduced from the 19th day. Let us note that, according to people with a proven infection, since April 13 they have been below 2.5%, ie well below the level around which they went before (!) The introduction of government measures. In other words, the situation regarding the birth of the order was not nearly as favorable as it is today, almost three weeks later, or even in the first half of the day, immediately before the introduction of government measures.

If the incubation time is, for example, 610 days and if at the time of the introduction of the measures the disease was on the rise (ie the fact unknown by the person increased over time), we would especially observe some daily number of people with a proven infection for some time dn) since the introduction of the measure, if the vldn measure has taken effect.

In absolute hearing, the number of sweat diagnosed, of course, at the time of the introduction of government measures. However, this was mainly due to the effect of increasing sweat testing and non-covert infection. In other words, we do not have any data that would strongly support the hypothesis of a rapid virus outbreak in the R population at the time of the last year.

After the introduction of the measure, it is not visible in the daily proportion of people with a proven infection nrst sweat catch. This fact can be interpreted in such a way that, in simple terms, there is no strong support for (then unequivocal evidence) a markedly positive effect of the measures taken on the slowing down of the order. On the other hand, we do not have (and do not have to have) evidence that she would be provided with it. This is not surprising: the real definition of the pin and the result is only possible in the laboratory under very specific conditions. Apart from laboratory conditions, caution should be exercised in similar interpretations: we may or may not (not be sure) that taking your own action contributes to the rapid attenuation of the disease.

Krajn monosti

An explanation of the fact that after the introduction of the measure the jet did not increase for a long time according to the findings between the tested, a series can be suggested. I offer two levels of hypothesis.

According to the first incubation, the time is not 610 days (or more), but times, and the action took a moment. That would be very good at first, because it would mean that the economic, social, and psychologically overwhelming government is in a position to release very quickly. It would not be necessary to wait a very long time, whether after the release of the measure, it is possible to increase or increase.

Hypothesis type: the incubation period is 610 days, but the individual measures to stop the virus did not abruptly write. This, in essence, would also mean that some measures (preferably those with the strongest negative effects on the economy and people’s lives) could be abolished in the current situation.

Tce traceable inn recipe

It is possible to try to take another assumption that taking measures was common, so they do not have an individual big effect, but together they do. Under such an assumption, it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish which measure contributed and which me. However, if we take into account the time of sequence, as it was provided with, it is possible to do it in any way.

Imagine a situation that the media would not inform about the disease at all (the people would not know about the disease) and the government would not take care of the day. In such a case, the infection would have taken place in some unknown way, quite a lot in a very called way. In contrast to such a hypothetical situation, however, there were gradually many deviations. Select only some:

  1. People began to behave more cautiously on the basis of worrying at first from copper, before taking the measures taken.
  2. On March 11, the wheels were closed.
  3. On March 16, the free movement of persons was restricted.
  4. On the 19th of March, the obligatory noen rouek was introduced outside as well.

The effects of these steps gradually happened in this real scene. For example, we will never know for sure what the course of the order would look like if the 11th day were not closed, but the 16th day would be restricted in the free movement of persons and the 19th day would be subject to the mandatory noen rouek.

We can find support in the data only for the hypothesis that if the incubation period is 610 days, then in a situation where another measure applied, the contribution of the obligatory noen rouek was negligible or not at all. Daily, according to positive tests, it began to decline before the end of this time.

However, this does not prove that the veils were / are excess (for example, it may be that they can have a significant effect indoors and when sweating people). There is no evidence that the added contribution of the obligatory noen rouk to alleviate the disease could not be much greater, for example, if the wheels were not closed and the free movement of persons was not restricted.

Nejasn cle

The fact is that in the Czech Republic, according to the patient with covid-19, on patients with pulmonary ventilation, the total number of patients with pulmonary ventilation was about five percent (April 7 and April 12). In other words: the potential of the health system R in this sense was far from being used. Whether it is the influence of suffocating measures, with their consequences the company will cope with going very long or not, the question is still open.

The main danger in connection with the disease covid-19 in the case of extreme birth is the threat of collapse of the infant health system. In the Czech Republic there is no danger of such a collapse, from the available data it was clearer at the end of the ordinary, at the latest in the first week of April. The purpose of continued governmental measures since then has had to be something other than preventing the collapse of the health system.

It seems that the new goal was to reduce the number of orders as much as possible, even at a high price. However, we can only estimate this, because at this moment it is not at all clear on the basis of what criteria and indicator and with what motivation the government proceeded.

The author works as an assistant professor at the Department of Statistics and Probability of the University of Economics in Prague.