HomeScienceFor those experts, experts think that the virus is under control
For those experts, experts think that the virus is under control
July 16, 2019
According to the disease covid-19, the Czech Republic managed to slow down so that the number of new cases should increase only slowly, it could even decrease slightly. This was mainly reported in the press conference of the Ministry of Health on the eighth of April. Take a look, prove your asserted experts and their estimates are uncertain.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus will definitely not disappear from the Czech Republic, but at least for now, its management has managed to slow down very sharply. In the coming weeks, the Czech population should grow only very slowly and the number of patients should not increase. I claim this at least the model, which is led by authorized experts, to consider the best description of the current epidemic situation in the Czech Republic.
On Wednesday morning, Ladislav Duek, Director of the State of Health Information and Statistics (KIC), introduced him at the press conference. We provided basic information from the conference in the previous article, now you can go through them in more detail with the forecasts and data on which it is based.
Of course, the number of patients in the Czech Republic is still growing, but the growth rate is not exponential. The pots of the new ones remain about the same. If this were not the case, the curve in the following graph showing the total number of seeds would rise upwards.
Ratio of positive and hospitalized cases. As of the 30th of October, the CoR has no change, which should indicate that a hidden epidemic will not occur in our country. If the model that ZIS uses is true, the number of hidden loaders should decrease in this trend.
The total number of cases of covid-19 with a significant number of children and adolescents (up to 19 years of age) and especially seniors, who are generally the most vulnerable group (ed). According to senior, it is around 2324 percent.
The growth of the sweat of the new cases has not accelerated, it would have been relatively slow lately, but the furnace is only certain to perform a day of the test. The ratio of positive to negative tests has therefore been declining in recent days.
Dal graph by Ladislav Duke captures this somewhat more complicated. It shows both the total number of tests and the percentage of positive tests per day. This decreases, so the patient is about the same (about 200 new cases a day). If the percentage remained the same, the average rate of several plates would fall daily.
Graph that summarizes the total number of patients connected with the daily finger of the patient. The number of tests is constantly increasing, even if it does not decrease according to the positive tests, the confirmed number would increase rapidly.
So the virus is getting slower and slower in the Czech Republic, suppose Ladislav Duek and his colleagues. The rate of infectivity of the virus has been constantly declining to values around 1 in recent days and weeks, so one infected infection has given about one hunter. Thus, the disease does not go out, but only smolders in the population, even under the current drastic measures.
The model, accurate on the last days, states that the hardness index, the so-called R, is roughly between 1 and 1.1. In the first case, the sweat of sick people at a given moment will remain practically flat for one day at a time, ie around 200 new cases per day (several thousand people would always be infected at one time).
In the case of hormones (R 1,1), the number of patients would increase, but relatively slowly. Even so, by the end of April, the total number of cases would not have doubled to about 12.5 thousand, and then doubled again in May.
Graph for predicting the development of the epidemic according to the KIC model presented on April 8, 2020. The current course of the epidemic in R can be seen together with the assumption of development by the end of April. yellow dots represent the number of captured cases, the red curve estimates the development of the confirmed case. ed pak poet neodhalench ppad. The graph is cumulative, so it shows the total number of cases, not the number of current patients. Very simply, nothing can ever fall on it.
So I do not mean that two or later we will not find ourselves in an unseen situation with a high sweat, but it should not happen in the coming weeks, but insights in the world. He took care of what he did two times, but at the same time it means that we cannot do without them. The virus cannot be erased or destroyed in any way, it will stay with them like a lace, said Ladislav Duek.
As long as it is not resistant to the population, it can be done very easily and quickly. Thus, the government experts confirmed at the conference that the transition to the norm will be slow and gradual in order to prevent the rapid onset of the disease. What else means that the state of the covid-19 epidemic in our country is unique in comparison with Ladislav Duk, it can easily change.
How many ns is without a flag?
Of course, models can be ground. One of the unknowns is the number of people who have no disease without symptoms. The ZIS model assumed that the number of asymptomatic people who themselves probably could not be ill is about 10 percent of the total sweat.
If the ratio should be different, the model will completely change this. Therefore, the team from the KIC also prepared a model of the model, in which 30 percent of the total sweat is the case according to asymptomatic costs. In such a situation, the disease would grow much faster and the Czech Republic would be at its worst. The disease would be more prevalent (the index of infertility would be about 1.2 and 1.35) and the total number of diagnosed cases would be fully multiplied by the end of April.
The model is adjusted to assume that the proportion of people without symptoms between infections is 30 percent. In such a case, the city of 2,000 would have about 2,000 asymptomatic conditions, and the total number of cases at the end of April would approach 20,000 cm in the middle course, more precisely in the range from 15,000 to 25,000. These options are not shown on the graph.
At the conference, Ladislav Duek made it clear that he considered the model to be unlikely to be asymptomatic patients, but there was little to do. At the moment, only the future will tell the truth, more precisely, especially the number of hospitalized and the number of positively diagnosed cases.
Mar after covid-19
Because the number of patients has not yet increased significantly, the number of patients for patients with covid-19 in the Czech Republic is still largely empty, according to the presentation of anesthesiologist Vladimír ernho, who is a member of the expert team for clinical use during the epidemic. In Czech hospitals, for example, there are about two thousand ventilators, while 64 patients were admitted to hospitals who needed a ventilator due to a new type of coronavirus.
Most of the 231 patients who were in hospital with covid-19 on April 7 were admitted last week, as shown in the chart below. It is clear from this that if the trend continued, the situation would become really strong relatively quickly in a few weeks.
What it looked like with the number of hospitalized patients on April 7, 2020. About half of them were admitted in the last week, which means that by then the number of patients in the population had steadily increased. From this point on, it should stabilize according to the ZIS model. If the number of patients bumps, it will be a sign that the model is wrong.
From the current data, it is evident that, as in other countries, the Czech Republic will die in covid-19, first and older.
As in other countries, the Czech Republic dies in the covid-19, first and foremost a year old.
Zemel patients with covid-19 disease had a large number of other victims. Only two people from the current number of countries (2.6 percent) did not even have a point on the so-called DCCI comorbidity index, ie they did not have a substantially chronic disease. For idea 5 and more points, health problems are really called, for example, a hunter with cancer (not metastatic) and diabetes with chronic victims will have a total of 4 points (2 for each disease).
The old people thus clearly dominate even among the hospitalized. About a quarter of a pijatch with covid-19 is 60 years old.