esko is waiting for two quiet coronavirus weeks. What will be long is a question

The coronavirus epidemic in the Czech Republic has developed roughly the same over the last week. Long-term insights are still unclear.

Unless something completely unexpected happens in the Czech Republic, the fall of coronavirus should increase at the same rate as before by the end of April. At the end of the month, there should be a total of (including those in the country) about nine and one thousand people for whom the disease was proven.

This is predicted by at least the latest update of the model, which prepares the state of health information and statistics (KIC) for the Ministry of Health together with colleagues from academic work. He was then presented at the press conference on April 15 by the director of ZIS Ladislav Duek (all in the line who accompanied the broadcast).

Prediction of totals

Prediction of the total sweat fed as of April 30, 2020. Unless something completely extraordinary happens, the model estimates that the Czech Republic should have a total of about 9 and 11 thousand fodder with a mean value of 10 thousand (extreme values ​​are marked with a peru . The development of the last few days is even a bit positive, not the average value of the model (see the weak yellows on the graph), but it doesn’t have to be that way. Recall that the number of tests performed at Easter was relatively low, so it is better not to rely on the data from these days, they may be skewed.

Unlike the previous two conferences with the same participants, there was no talk of a test room. What is possible is the bottom and the fact that from the previous issue of April 8 here does not reach the day of a sharp shift. The number of tests rose slightly, but then dropped sharply again at Easter, from record values ​​around eight thousand tests a day to values ​​around three thousand.

For

We will start a sweat test per day (graph above) and a fall per day by mid-April 2020. Let us remind you that, according to the government, the goal is to reach the level of about 20,000 tests a day. The Czech Republic is still a long way from that.

According to the Minister of Health Adam Vojtech, it was at least up to the result of a reduction in the number of test rooms, there was no danger of a lack of capacity or a lack of material for the test room. The truth is that even on April 14, the number of tests rose again above the limit of six thousand a day, let’s see how it will develop according to.

As can be seen from the same graph, the number of positive testers in recent days is definitely not rising, on the contrary. According to the model, this corresponds to the fact that the virus is growing in the population, but only as fast as the people are recovering. Its quality index or reproduction, ie the value called R, is around 1. According to the results presented by Duke, somewhere between about 0.95 and 1.05. In this case, only one further hunter will be infected under the conditions of limited movement.

Aktualizovan

Compared to last week, therefore, the reproduction practically did not change when I changed of course. In Hong Kong, for example, the R value is now between about 0.3 and 0.9, with a mean value of about 0.5.

According to Ladislav Duk, it could be R i in R ni if ​​the Easter weekend got involved. As we did, the number of tests dropped sharply during it (and to about three thousand tests per day), so these data were not included in the results. The following days will confirm it.

Note that the model sweat with about 10 percent of asymptomatic foams (subclinical cases). According to Duke’s words, the creators of the model are still certain that this value of the answer to reality and 90 percent of the patients somehow would sometimes be really only mild (rhyme, cloudy) symptoms.

Dl do neznma

At the press conference, Ladislav Duek was asked whether he would present the models of long-term development that he had talked about in the past. According to him, the dark bag is not able to offer a reliable forecast at this moment. We have seven variants, the director of the KIC, with the fact that they do not have enough to decide which of them can live.

He changed the specific ambiguity about the size of the population encountered the virus (ie promo and percentage of people, their immune problems have encountered the virus and should be more effective). It is remembered that for the full result it is very important that the degree of promotion in individual age groups is very important.

It is clear that the virus will be easy to fight if a large population cannot defend itself against it and due to natural immunity or vaccination. The virus will thus stop at the resilience of the individual and his enemy will at least slow down to an acceptable level, ie such that the healthcare system does not travel. Ladislav Duek changed the rate of immunization by about 60 percent, there are estimates of a little less, and you, but the variance is not large.

According to Duke, the scenes therefore move between two extremes, which he can imagine in essence. At one end, the possibility that the plan came into force came before dark, the disease did not start at all in the dark. Thus, all nakaen were detected and make up only a fraction of the total population (the estimated 10 thousand at the end of April is about 0.1 percent of the population of R). The virus may be in front of a substantially completely naive population in which no one can defend itself. This means that we should go everything ahead, Ladislav Duek said.

Prediction of units

Prediction of total sweat on 30 April 2020 with marked sweat from uninfected infections. If so, only a fraction of all of the virus have encountered the virus, and as a group we would represent an extremely easy SARS-CoV-2.

The kind of extreme would be, despite the virus encountered a significant population. Duek changed the word 30 percent. With such a level of immunization between the Czechs, it would be possible to rely at least to some extent on medium immunity and severely reduce existing measures.

I did not take any of these extremes, he stressed. Between the two extremes is an area in which the director of the KIC has not yet set out, but the Czech Republic has been there in those weeks and months. Not only the good results of the model, which the team is compiling at ZIS and their colleagues from other works, but also some facts suggest that the truth could be a model with a relatively low sweat. In practice, this would mean that some measures would have to go for a relatively long time, with a high probability and up to five years.