Pensions: no return to balance in the system before 2045 at best, according to the Orientation Council

The projections of the Retirement Orientation Council are based on a public deficit of 10% of GDP. But Bercy is now counting on a recession of 11.3%.

The horizon continues to recede for the French pension system and the coronavirus does not help matters. In two years, the prospect of an exit from deficits has gone from 2036 to 2042, and now 2045. And again, this would imply an improbable increase in productivity of 1.8% per year. With a rate – still very optimistic – of 1.5%, it would be necessary to wait until 2053. Below, the system “would remain in long-term need of financing“, At least until 2070.

These projections say “conventional“Have no prediction value, however: established”with constant legislation“And on the basis of changing assumptions (demography, employment, growth, etc.), they are also subject this year to”strong hazardsIn the short term, because of the health crisis. The COR did not take into account the effects of the second epidemic wave and of the re-containment.

Considerable efforts

Its forecast for 2020 is therefore based on a public deficit of 10% of GDP. However, Bercy is now counting on a recession of 11.3% of GDP. The report specifies, however, that with a decline of 11%, “the balance of the pension system could deteriorate by around 1.6 billion euros».

In these circumstances, achieving a balanced book in 2030 would require considerable effort. In all scenarios, compared to what is already expected, it would be necessary either to lower the average pension (compared to the average salary) by 3 points, or to increase the deduction rate by 2 points, or to postpone the age by one year. starting point, which would then exceed 64 years.

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