In seven years, unemployment has not fallen once

The number of unemployed registered in categories A, B and C in metropolitan France has not declined since May 2008, apart from August 2013 because of the SFR bug. That is 84 increases in 84 months: in seven years, it has exploded by 75%. Any lasting decline is impossible in the short term.

Stop or else? The government will unveil the figures for April this Monday at 6 p.m. Precisely the number of job seekers registered with Pôle emploi. However, the trend, with all due respect, is not really for improvement. Judge for yourself: two months in a row of increases (+12,800 in February and + 15,400 in March) more than canceling out the January drop (-19,100), 30th month of increase on the 34 presidency and 615,000 more unemployed on the counter of category A (without any activity) in metropolitan France.

Worse, the flagship indicator of Pôle Emploi exceeded – for the first time in the history of unemployment statistics – the Hexagon at the end of March. “The measures adopted are starting to bear fruit”, then briefly commented the Minister of Labor, while the number of additional unemployed in France reached 163,400 over one year and that of the number under 25 years emerged, on a months, on the rise! Before promising that the government would continue to mobilize for employment in France …

The situation is even more catastrophic if we take into account – what the executive does not do, whether on the right or on the left – job seekers registered in categories B and C, to c ‘ that is to say in “reduced activity” because they perform odd jobs of more or less 78 hours per month. Here again, the figures speak for themselves: not a drop in one year and only one since the start of the five-year term, precisely in August 2013, the month of the now famous and famous… “SFR bug”.

With this exception, the last drop in the number of registrants in categories A, B and C dates back to… May 2008! Since the start of the crisis, it has exploded by 75%, to nearly 5.3 million in metropolitan France. In other words, it has practically doubled in seven years and has increased (excluding the SFR bug) 83 months out of… 83! Last month, 28,000 more job seekers came to swell the ranks of categories A, B and C.

“The measures adopted are starting to bear fruit”

François Rebsamen, Minister of Labor, April 27, 2015

In these conditions, it is difficult to say, as is the case, on the basis of the data of the last few months or of its forecasts for the next, that the reversal of the curve is for tomorrow. And it is not the few provisions on in VSEs, which must be announced next week after the next two days of consultation in Matignon on this subject with the social partners, which will reverse the trend (83 consecutive months of increase ).

And all the more so as François Rebsamen, in his capacity as Minister of Labor, will have a hard time keeping the same positive discourse – and especially to share it with the French – if the unemployment rate in the 1st quarter of 2015, which will be unveiled Thursday morning by INSEE, once again shows an increase. At the end of 2014, it was 10.4% for the whole of France. However, all economic and forecasting organizations, whether national or international, anticipate a slight increase in the rate until the end of the year. But apart from that, promised, “the recovery, it’s here” …