France will return to its pre-crisis level of activity in mid-2022

France will return to its pre-crisis level of activity in mid-2022

According to its central scenario, the Banque de France forecasts growth of 5% over the next two years.

Groping. Despite the many uncertainties on the health front, the Banque de France did not shy away from the programming exercise and published its macroeconomic forecasts until 2023 on Monday. The main message comes as no surprise: due to the second containment, the French economy will rebound more slowly than expected. At this stage, according to its central scenario, the country will not return to its pre-crisis level of activity until mid-2022, thanks to GDP growth of 5% in 2021 and 2022, after a plunge of 9% in 2020. By 2023, growth should have returned to a more usual pace, at +2%.

To illustrate his message, the Governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, spun the metaphor of the staircase. In the spring, France had tumbled thirty-one steps. After the recovery in the third quarter and the new relapse in November, it still has eight to go. “We anticipate a very gradual ascent of these eight steps…

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