For the first time, Google’s ad revenue to decline in the United States in 2020

According to eMarketer, they are expected to decline by 5.3% this year because of the coronavirus crisis, unlike those of Facebook and Amazon which will progress.

The coronavirus pandemic will have an unexpected effect this year: advertising revenues in its first market, the United States, will decline for the first time in the history of the internet giant, which dominates the market with its search engine and its video platform.

According to projections, the turnover of advertising across the Atlantic of the main subsidiary of Alphabet should fall by 5.3% this year, while the market as a whole is expected to grow by 2%. This is the first time that Google has stalled since 2008, when eMarketer started measuring the online advertising market. The Mountain View firm should then resume its growth path by rebounding strongly in 2021 (more than 20% expected) and 2022 (+ 11.8%).

In detail, Google’s advertising revenue is expected to be nearly $ 39.6 billion, compared to $ 41.8 billion last year. By 2018, these revenues had reached $ 36.5 billion. YouTube’s governance activities will not be impacted by the health crisis that is hitting the United States hard since their revenues are expected to increase. It is the revenues linked to the sale of keywords on the Google search engine (“search”) which will fall by 7.2%, according to data from eMarketer. Main explanation: the “search” activity is particularly exposed to the tourism and travel markets (Expedia, Booking, etc.), which are the most affected by the health crisis and have, as a result, greatly reduced their online investments.

Amazon, big winner

Google’s main rivals, on the other hand, should see their advertising revenues grow in 2020, and this despite the pandemic. In the US market, those of (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp) are expected to rise 4.9% to $ 31.4 billion. A brake on all the same, since Facebook had seen its revenues grow by 26% in 2019.

For its part, should be the big winner among the major platforms, with advertising revenue which could jump 23% in 2020, to $ 12.7 billion. This is the strongest growth for the e-commerce giant since it began to expand into online advertising. Amazon and Facebook are respectively driven by the boom in e-commerce as a whole and by the rise of social networks.

As a result of these “movements” in the American advertising market, Google’s market share should stand at 29.4% in 2020 (against 31.6% in 2019), while that of Facebook would be 23.4% (22.7% in 2019) and that of Amazon at 9.5% (7.8% in 2019). The oligopoly (62.3% of the market) remains in the hands of the same, but with narrow gaps.