After five years of crisis, where is Greece?

It has been five years since the Greek crisis began. The month of June promises to be very risky for the country. Where are the negotiations with the creditors? How much does Greece owe? Whose ? What options are being considered? Explanations.

It is, director of the IMF, herself who declares: “The exit of Greece from the euro zone is a possibility”, she indicated in an interview granted to the German daily newspaper. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeintung (FAZ). Words that made a wind of excitement blow over the euro zone. Christine Lagarde has also chosen to complete her remarks in the wake of the publication of this interview via a press release: “This is something that, I hope, Europeans will not be confronted with because they will find, hopefully it, a way to agree on the future of Greece in the euro zone. For his part, “there is no scenario of ‘”, for his part assured Michel Sapin on Friday. Manuel Valls echoed him by assuring that he remains “convinced that it will be possible to reach an agreement soon. We are in no way working on Greece leaving the euro zone, this is not a scenario for us ”. Five years after the start of the crisis, the situation is again extremely tense and the month of June promises to be very risky for the country.

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• What Greece has to reimburse

Greece received in 2010 and then in 2012 two international financial aid plans to avoid bankruptcy. Total amount of these credits: nearly 250 billion euros, which must be added to the pre-existing debt.

Who are the creditors of the Greek state?

– Europe, via its European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF): 142 billion euros
-The European Central Bank: 27 billion
-The IMF, which still has 25 billion euros to be reimbursed
-Other countries: bilateral loans to the tune of 53 billion (including 11 for France and 15 for Germany).

In all, the Greek debt stood at 317 billion euros at the end of 2014, or 177% of the national GDP. More than 70% of the Greek debt is held by public actors (negotiated rates) and 30%, by private actors (rate on the financial markets, at more than 9%).

• The next upcoming repayments to the IMF

While in May Greece had to pay 750 million euros to the IMF, Athens must make four large repayments to the international institution:

– June 5: 308 million euros
June 12: 347 million euros
-Before June 16: 578 million euros
-June 19: 347 million euros

Total: 1.6 billion. However, the IMF is a so-called “priority” creditor, that is to say that it does not accept any delay, renegotiation or cancellation of its debts.

Apriori, the deadline of June 5 should be paid. , until digging into the reserves of retirement homes, universities or! It is quite possible that during June or later in the summer, Greece will not really be able to repay any more. We are now in a critical situation and the air pockets that are returning to the financial markets prove it.

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• What scenarios for Athens?

It has been four months since the election in January which took power, that the players linked to the Greek debt (IMF, ECB, European Union) have been negotiating to find the least worst solution. Clearly, there are two options. Either we continue the financial support in exchange for austerity measures. A solution which pushed the Greeks to vote for the Siryza party in January, at the risk of a frank social discontent in Greece; either we decide to let Greece default, and therefore, quite mechanically, to exit the euro. VS

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